How Did Mortality Selection Change the Future of the Past? Consequences of Mortality Selection on Cohort Trends in Life-Course Mortality Patterns and Epidemiologic Transition
Hui Zheng, Ohio State University
This paper proposes a conceptual framework to understand how the effects of mortality selection on cohort trends in life-course mortality pattern and epidemiologic transition may be shaped by different historical mechanisms for the decline in pandemics. Among early-transition countries, socioeconomic development suppressed pandemics and triggered a cohort evolution mechanism, yielding a moderate reduction in mortality selection at early ages that did not override cohort evolution mechanisms. In contrast, among later-transition countries, medical advancements did not trigger cohort evolution mechanisms, but instead generated a substantial reduction in mortality selection in early life. These different mortality selection processes generate different cohort trends in the pattern of mortality over the life-course, as well as different period trends in life expectancy and the age-dependence of mortality. Using the Human Mortality Database, we compare three epidemiologic transition models represented by Sweden, Japan, Poland and Bulgaria, and find support for this conceptual framework.
Presented in Session 207. Early Life Health and Mortality in the Developing World