Marginal Risk Progression of Non Communicable Diseases with Increasing Age in India: An Application of Competing Risk Model

Raj Kumar Verma, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Arpita Paul, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

This study attempts to investigate the marginal risk of major NCDs like CVD, asthma, arthritis, mental illness, diabetes and cancer at different ages and their socio-demographic differentials in India. Assuming the competing risk of other NCDs related to disease of interest, the marginal risk gives the true risk scenario. Here, marginal risk is estimated for a disease in terms of cumulative incidence function using competing risk model developed by Fine and Grey (1999). 60th round data of NSSO on Morbidity and Health Care, 2004 is used which covers 73868 nationally representative households. This new approach of estimation gives better insights about the risk of NCDs in India. Findings suggest that, in India, females suffer double risk of getting CVD and arthritis. There is early onset of mental illness while diabetes onset is comparatively late. Onset of CVD and diabetes among richer and highly educated people is comparatively earlier.

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 Presented in Session P4. Children and Youth/Population and Aging