Convergence to Population Stability: An Assessment of Demographic Potential of Indian States

Raj Kumar Verma, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Faujdar Ram, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

India accounts for nearly 17% of the world’s population and is experiencing rapid demographic changes with highest demographic heterogeneities ever experienced anywhere in the world at the regional and state levels. According to United Nation Population Division projection, the ultimate size of India’s population when population stabilization is achieved will be about 1.72 billion around 2060. Since, different states are at different level of their demographic transition and hence aggregate level estimates mask the state heterogeneity, which motivates us to go for state-wise analysis and focus on the population stability and other population dynamics for major Indian state. Using data from census and Sample Registration System this study investigates first the potentiality of the current age structure for further population growth in major Indian states and secondly, but most important, how fast the Indian states are approaching towards their stable age structure and what will be their ultimate stationary population.

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 Presented in Session P6. Migration and Urbanization/Population, Development, and the Environment