Spatial Analysis of Child Mortality in South Africa: Evidence from the 2011 Census

Samuel A. Zewdie, University of Cape Town
Vissého D. Adjiwanou, University of Cape Town

The aim of the research is to estimate child mortality (CM) rates for municipalities and provinces of South Africa. The estimates are generated using the 2011 census data and Bayesian spatial smoothing method. It is found that there are clear and significant spatial differentials of CM, where at province level the under-five CM rate per 1000 live births ranges from 26 to 71, while at municipal level it ranges from 24 to 109. It is also shown that CM is positively related with poverty, although there are some cases where an inverse relationship is observed as in several municipalities in Limpopo province. Similarly, the distribution of income matters to some extent as greater CM is observed in more unequal areas. The findings of this study may help the government to implement policies more effectively and make more focused decisions in the fight for the reduction of CM in the country.

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 Presented in Session P7. Health and Mortality of Women, Children and Families