Does the Radical Right Have a Future in Swedish Politics? Socio-Demographic Structure and Voter Support for the Sweden Democrats

Margarita Chudnovskaya, Stockholm University
Tina Goldschmidt, Stockholm University

In Sweden, as elsewhere in Europe, right-wing nationalist parties have gained success in elections and attracted controversy and discussion. This study examines the socio-demographic structural basis of the support for the Sweden Democrats right-wing party in Sweden. We consider voting behavior in municipalities between the years 2002-2014, in relation to the age-structure, sex ratios, and the percentage of foreign-born inhabitants. These factors are all highly significant for support for the Sweden Democrats. We then use age-specific migration, mortality, and fertility rates to create projections of the socio-demographic structure of Swedish municipalities over the next ten years. This projection shows a possible scenario in the development of the support for this right-wing party.

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 Presented in Session P2. Data and Methods/Applied Demography/ Spatial Demography/ Demography of Crime