The Changing Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Fertility Decline in India

Binod Jena, Jawaharlal Nehru University
Prakash Sahoo, Jawaharlal Nehru University

The Total Fertility Rate in India has declined from 3.4 births per woman in 1992-1993 to 2.7 births in 2005-06 and further declined to 2.4 births per woman in 2012. Studies show that socio-economic factors are the main determinants of this fertility decline. Therefore in this backdrop this paper analyses how fertility has declined in different sub-groups of population and the changing role of these socio-economic factors on India’s fertility decline during two time period (1998-99 & 2005-06). The result of the study shows that fertility has declined in almost all sub-groups of population with varying degrees.The percentage decline was highest for women with higher education (35.7%), followed by non-SC/ST/OBC population (19.5%), and women with secondary education (15.8%). From Multiple Classification Analysis the rising value of R2 from NFHS-II (0.346) to NFHS-III (0.465) justifies the increasing impact of socio-economic factors on India's fertility decline.

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 Presented in Session P3. Fertility Intentions and Behaviors