The Predictability of Fertility Intentions for Subsequent Fertility Behavior in a Stable-Low Fertility Context

Doris Hanappi, University of California, Berkeley and Université de Lausanne
Carl Mason, University of California, Berkeley

In this paper data from the Swiss Household Panel are used to analyze determinants of women’s fertility intentions, and the waiting timing to subsequent births. By exploiting couple-level data, we examine if partner’s employment status, SES characteristics, and preferences for future fertility matter for fertility intentions and subsequent births. From a resource and bargain perspective, we explore whether the distribution of economic resources within the couple generates a power-(im)balance affecting fertility intent and realization. Focusing on women and men of reproductive age we explore the characteristics of individuals and their partners and (1) differentiate those who want a child from those who do not and (2) differentiate among those who want a child, between those who are successful and those who are not in having a child. We estimate the durations of varying length over which women of differing age and situations either do or do not give birth.

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Presented in Poster Session 3: Fertility Intentions and Behaviors